Don Bradley presented an excellent paper at the 2013 FairMormon Conference:
Bradley does an excellent job at showing that the claims of Dan Vogel et al., are bogus. While the entire article should be read, here is Don’s conclusion:
As our examination shows, the First Vision fits its reported 1820s context hand in glove.
The argument that Joseph Smith crafted the First Vision narrative to address church problems of the 1830s thus fails. Had he invented the story at that time, he would have tailored its details to actually address the problems of the 1830s, rather than faithfully reflect the 1820s. And if Joseph did take pains to make his story details satisfying to far off future historians, might I suggest that his biggest problem was too much time on his hands.
The original context that gave rise to Joseph Smith’s First Vision was not the church he created but the family that created him. And the First Vision was not a product of his prophetic role, but the source of that role. Joseph Smith entered the Sacred Grove a boy and left it a prophet and seer.