The following is a reproduction of various UK-based newspapers predicting the U.S. Civil War in 1861, as republished in Richmond Dispatch (May 7, 1861), Logos Bible Software edition. The War itself started on April 12, 1861:
The British press on American
Affairs.
The American Revolution.
[From the London Times, 19th.]
It needs no comment of ours to
impress the public with the great importance of the news from America. We are
anxious to speak with caution on this subject, and not cause alarm which may
possibly prove to have been unnecessary. Therefore we would rather let the
telegraphic summary from Queenstown speak for itself. The steamer left New York
on the 6th, and on the day previous the signs of an approaching conflict, which
had been visible for some weeks before became so marked that a panic took place
in Wall street. In what may be called the two chief cities of the rival
Federations, the belief that war was at hand prevailed equally. In New York
there was as we have said, a panic on the Stock Exchange, while from Charleston
the telegraph announced that the dreaded moment had arrived, and a rupture
would at once take place. It was even feared that military operations had begun
on the part of the Southerners. No news had been received from Fort Pickens for
several days, and this had led to the belief that the communication had been
cut off by the Southern troops. From Charleston it was announced that Major
Anderson had been called upon to evacuate Fort Sumter within forty-eight hours,
the alternative being that the place would be bombarded. The belief at
Washington was that the Government there was as determined as that of the
secessionists. Every man had been ordered on duty; frigate, with two
first-class merchant steamers, would sail at once with sealed orders, but we
learn from a private source that there were still doubts as to whether they
were intended to relieve Fort Pickens, or to proceed to St. Domingo.
Such is the momentous
intelligence which we publish to-day. We may here, however, repeat the hope so
often expressed on this side of the ocean, that if the two sections of the late
Union be destined to separation, the change may be accomplished without the
spilling of blood. It may, perhaps, be too late to indulge in such wishes, yet
we will not give up all hope that even at the last hour moderate counsels may
have prevailed, and that this fratricidal war has been checked in the outset.
But, supposing that the worst has happened, and, either through the naval
operations of the United States or an attack on the Federal forts by their
rivals, hostilities have begun, it is plain that a conflict of no common kind
must follow. The Confederate States, though without a navy, and consequently
forced, for the most part, to remain on the defensive, will be an enemy not
easy to deal with. True, they are not so powerful in men or resources as they
anticipated some months ago. The fidelity of the border States to the Union has
been a great disappointment to the Montgomery politicians and their ambitious
President. The Border States, particularly Kentucky and Tennessee, contain a
population which, for military purposes, surpasses, perhaps, any in the Union.--The
fine race which inhabits these regions would prove formidable enemies to the
Government at Washington if they had resolved on seceding. Then there would
have been the accession of a large white population without any great admixture
of Negroes, and further more considerable wealth, which in the present state of
the Southern Exchequer would have been very acceptable. But, though for the
present, at least, the Border States stand fast by the Union, yet the South
shows a bold front. The seven seceding States, being in earnest and fighting
for their independence, have raised an army which the other twenty-seven have
not yet succeeded in matching.--According to all accounts, the Southern levies
are large, well-disciplined, and in high spirits. For weeks it has been
difficult to keep the Charleston regiments from attacking Fort Sumter, and at
Pensacola we find that Fort Pickens was hard pressed by a considerable force.
The iron foundries in Virginia were turning out guns to be used against the
Government which owns the allegiance of Virginia itself. ‘"Troops,
provisions and ammunition were flowing in to the Confederate army,"’ was
the intelligence received a few days since. It seems clear that, if peace be
preserved, it will not be by any yielding on the part of the Secessionists.
It would be a great political error, not to say a crime, if the
Republican President should plunge the New World into war in order to show his
attachment to his party or his consistency with his former principles. When
Mr. Buchanan published his unhappy message — a document to which it is probably
owing that South Carolina was followed into secession by six other States--the
Republican party, and indeed opinion generally throughout the North, was so
much inflamed against the President that Mr. Lincoln found or fancied it
necessary to repudiate these sentiments. Incautiously giving utterance to his
own opinions wherever he came on his journey from the West, he arrived at
Washington pledged not only to keep but to retake the forts belonging to the
Union in the seceded States, and to refuse any recognition of Southern
independence. The collection of the duties at the Southern ports was also made
a part of the new President's programme. How difficult it has been found to
carry out all this, is evident from the long delay which has taken place.
Before Mr. Buchanan left office Major Anderson was in extreme danger; no time
was to be lost in relieving Fort Pickens and the Confederate States themselves
were lowering their tariff and letting in the productions of Europe at a rate
which would make every idler in the Border States take to smuggling at once. It
was though that the moment Mr. Lincoln was installed a resolution would be
taken. But this was not to be. For a full month the President and his Cabinet
have been debating what is to be done, and only on the 5th of April is it
announced that the policy of coercion has triumphed.
The delay seems all the more to
be regretted since confidence among men of business had been almost restored.
There was up to nearly the last day of March a feeling that the worst was over,
and that, however lamentable might be the disruption of the Republic, there
would not be added to this misfortune the still greater calamity of civil war.
The absorbing interest in military and political matters was passing away, and
business was resuming its usual course. What will be the result of a collision
between the two Governments is more than any one can predict. The vision of
privateers at sea and partisan bands along the frontier must be so terrible to
Americans that it is possible the public feeling of the people may restrain the
acts of their rulers. But, should this quarrel begin and continue until both
sides are roused into animosity, the war, though short, may be as savage as any
that has been carried on even by the Spanish race. The Americans are in the
highest degree excitable and vindictive; the ferocity which they carry into
their domestic conflicts would be increased largely when one side fancied
itself to be resisting tyrants and the other punishing traitors. But we had
rather not speculate on so great a calamity as such a war would be. We would rather
hope that the good sense of the Americans and the peaceful counsels of this
country may bring about a reconciliation before the dispute has been too far
envenomed. As long as the two sections of the Union refrain from hostilities,
it would be the height of arrogance and folly to interfere; but when the soil
and seas of the New World are likely to be stained with blood, foreign nations
may surely remonstrate in the cause of humanity.
The South never to be Subdued by
arms.
[From the Liverpool Times, 20th.]
The latest accounts from America
are ominous in the extreme, and it is greatly to be feared that the North and
South will, after all, come to blows. We had hoped a different result, and we
hope so still, but it is useless to disguise the feeling which prevails not
less in New York than in Charleston, that a deadly collision is impending — a
fratricidal war imminent. For this melancholy state of things people in Europe
were not prepared. The tone of the new President's inaugural address pointed to
war, but his subsequent conduct has been at variance with this belief, and
hopes were entertained that, as the South could not be again seduced into the
Union, she would not be coerced. We may receive, at any hour or any day,
intelligence that the deadly conflict has begun, and once commenced, there is
no telling how long it may continue, or where it may end.
America, in this hour of her
fate, can be said to owe little to the judgment of her Presidents — the last or
the present. Mr. Buchanan's ill-omened message to Congress, at the end of his
term, was a direct incentive to the breaking up of the Federal compact; and now
we have the pacific policy which followed Mr. Lincoln's accession to office
cast aside, and a policy of force substituted which may end in the destruction
of thousands of lives and the flowing of rivers of blood. Matters had proceeded
to such a pass that a pacific solution of the difficulty was the only
reasonable and proper one. It may be that the accounts which have reached us
are exaggerated and unreliable; but when the business men of New York look on
civil war as imminent, and when the capital of the South is moved by a similar
belief, we, in England, have no alternative but to accept the probability,
however much we may deplore it.
As war, then, between the two
Republics seems to be regarded as certain, the question that remains to be
asked is, What will the principals gain by it? It is evident that President
Lincoln has neither an army nor a navy at hand to make the South submit, and it
is equally certain that the South is even more anxious than the North to test
it by a trial of strength. The old Government has certainly one alternative to
which it may resort; but it is so terrible in conception, and would prove so
malignant in practice, that we will do Mr. Lincoln the justice of expressing
our disbelief in his ever having recourse to it. The South is so strong on its own ground, that no amount of Federal
force which can be brought into the field, within any reasonable period, would
stand a chance of success. * * *
If civil war has really commenced
between the North and the South, we hope
that the representatives of England and France at Washington have been
instructed by their respective Governments to tender their aid as mediators
before the struggle has roused all the fierce passions which, if continued for
any length of time, are certain to be called into play.--Both nations wish
well to the American people, both are alike interested in the general
prosperity of the country in every latitude; and both are impelled towards it
by the strongest sympathy that can animate friendly nations. This seems to us
the last resource before the sword is drawn and the scabbard thrown away, and
probably the suggestion would meet the approval of that large class in both
extremes of the country which must look with horror and dismay at the prospect
of men and brothers cutting each other's throats under circumstances so
fearfully provocative of vengeance.
A Manchester View.
[From the Guardian, 20th.]
With a people less shrewd and
practiced than the Americans — and less addicted, we will add to extravagance
in their language and demonstrations — it would abundantly support the
inference that the next mail might be expected to bring us news of the actual
commencement of civil war. We are far, however, from abandoning the hope that
conciliatory councils will prevail even at the eleventh hour. There is
obviously no reason for a contest now, which did not exist with at least equal
force during the whole of last month — nay, the enterprise of attempting to
force the seceding States to return to their allegiance is far less justifiable
now than it would have been at the beginning of Mr. Lincoln's administration,
because it has become by the lapse of time infinitely more difficult. Whether
it is believed that some desirable impression may be produced on the popular
mind by adopting a menacing attitude at this moment, or whether, as some people
have supposed, a design altogether unconnected with domestic politics is masked
under the naval and military preparations ostensibly made against the
secessionists, we cling to any interpretation of the new turn of affairs rather
than that the unnatural conflict which it seems to threaten is really about to
take place.
To predict the course and result
of the struggle, if it be regarded as inevitable, is impossible. The disparity
of force appears at first sight very great; but, besides that the Southerners
have little or nothing to do but to maintain themselves on the defensive, it is
to be considered that very important changes in the respective positions of the
combatants might follow very quickly on the outbreak of war. The most
conspicuous failure in the expectations of the founders of the Southern
Confederation has been met with in the fact that what are called the Border States
have hitherto remained firm to the Union. What effect, however, is likely to be
produced on their disposition by hostilities, the first blow being struck by
the Government at Washington? That they could remain wholly disengaged in the
contest for any length of time, would appear to be forbidden by their
geographical position, and by the extent to which their own interests would be
involved.
Could they, however, be expected
to take part with the North, seeing that the war waged by that power must be in
manifest danger of assuming the character of a crusade against the institution
of slavery wherever it is to be found? It is much more likely that they would
be driven, by a sense of the paramount necessity of protecting their own
property, into the arms of the party whose blandishments they have hitherto
resisted.--The New York Herald already declares that every demonstration of
public feeling in Virginia goes to show that the secession movement is making
repid strides in that State, under the prevalence of a belief that no
compromise or concession is to be expected from the North. It may be hoped that
the undesirableness of doing anything to promote this conclusion will concur
with other considerations to make President Lincoln hesitate before he enters
on a contest in which he may have to cope with more enemies than are arrayed
against him at the outset.
Further Reading:
Resources on Joseph Smith's Prophecies
