The history of religions is rife
with cases of prophetic failure, as is the history of NRMs. “Prophecy” here
refers to the prediction that a particular event will usher in salvational transformation.
More precisely, the realization of this millenarian expectation is tied to a specific
period of or point in time. Failure in this regard means that the dated
prediction has not come to pass—at least not in the way originally anticipated.
A famous historical example of unfulfilled prophecy is the book of Daniel, a
second-century BCE text in the Hebrew Bible. The transformative events prophesied
by Daniel that would lead to the creation of God’s Kingdom in a specific
context and time did not occur. The Qumran community (c. 150 BCE-70 CE), known
through the Dead Sea Scrolls, drew their messianic hopes from this biblical
text but did so in vain. Prophetic failure led to growing disappointment. The
response was to extend the end-times (or “eschatological”) chronology into the
indefinite future. Ultimately, however, the group ceased to exist. (Lukas K.
Pokorny, “How do new religious movements respond to failed prophecies?,” in New
Religious Movements in 5 Minutes, ed. Lukas K. Pokorny and Franz Winter [Sheffield:
Equinox Publishing Ltd., 2026], 78)
