It is common to hear that Hyrum Smith taught that a prophet only needed 10% accuracy in their prophecies. Consider the following:
17 November 1868: Stake President (and former Nauvoo resident) Abraham 0. Smoot told the Provo School of the Prophets that Hyrum Smith "used to say [about] prophecy if you hit once in 10 times that is alright." (D. Michael Quinn, Dilemmas of Feminists & Intellectuals in the Contemporary LDS Church,", Sunstone 17, no. 1 [June 1994]: 72)
16 July [1843]. Joseph Smith creates confusion by declaring that he “would not prophesy any more, and proposed Hyrum to hold the office of prophet to the Church, as it was his birthright” as Presiding Patriarch. Stake president and former Nauvoo resident Abraham O. Smoot would tell the Provo School of the Prophets in 1868 that Hyrum Smith “used to say [about[ prophecy if you hit once in 10 times that is alright.” (D. Michael, Quinn, The Mormon Hierarchy, 3 vols. [Salt Lake City: Signature Books, 1994], 1:639)
Hyrum Smith, Joseph’s brother, was a bit more forgiving saying that any prophet, if they “hit once in 10 times that is alright.” (Richard Abanes, One Nation Under Gods: A History of the Mormon Church [New York: Four Walls Eight Windows, 2002], 461; on ibid., 617 n. 1, the Abanes gives his source: “Hyrum Smith. Quoted by Abraham O. Smoot, 1868, Provo School of the Prophets (See D. Michael Quinn, The Mormon Hierarchy: Origins of Power [Salt Lake City: Signature Books, 1994], 639–see above)
Joseph Smith's brother Hyrum held a different view, however. He once said about prophesying that "if you hit once in 10 times that is alright." (Edmond C. Gruss and Lane A. Thuet, What Every Mormon (and Non-Mormon) Should Know [Xulon Press, 2006], 206)
Hyrum Smith, who was also a "prophet," on Nov 1, 1831, commented about prophecy and said that "if you hit once in 10 times, that is alright." [quoted by Abraham O. Smoot in 1868 at the Provo School of the Prophets] This also is a contradiction of Deut 18:22. (Richard Packham, "Joseph Smith as a Prophet"; this essay also appears on the Infidels.org, Recovery from Mormonism, and the Bible Prophecy and Truth Websites)
Here is an interesting thought reportedly made by Hyrum Smith, I am not sure if it's a reflection of his perceived ability to accurately prophesy or his opinion of his brother's ability to accurately prophesy or just the people in general:
Stake president and former Nauvoo resident Abraham O. Smoot would tell the Provo School of the Prophets in 1868 that Hyrum Smith "used to say [about] prophecy if you hit once in 10 times that is alright."
-Minutes of the Provo School of the Prophets 1868, LDS church archives
Hyrum seemed to have low expectations. ("Joel," Julie Rowe; Is it wrong to question the messenger if we like the message? LDS Freedom Forum, July 22, 2015)
Joseph Smith creates confusion by declaring that he "would not prophesy any more, and proposed Hyrum to hold the office of prophet to the Church, as it was his birthright" as Presiding Patriarch. Stake president and former Nauvoo resident Abraham O. Smoot would tell the Provo School of the Prophets in 1868 that Hyrum Smith "used to say [about] prophecy if you hit once in 10 times that is alright." (175 Years ago Today - Jul 16, 1843, Today in Mormon History; cf. July16th, On This Day in Mormon History)
Hyrum Smith said about being a prophet, "if you hit once in 10 times, that is alright." [Nov 1, 1831, quoted by Abraham O. Smoot]
So, the standard of Mormon prophecy is being correct roughly 10% of the time. ("Goldang," Morg Leaders are the most skilled liars on earth, Exmormon Reddit Forum)
Anyway I found this quote and will see if I can find a bit more direct link:
"Hyrum Smith, who was also a "prophet," on Nov 1, 1831, commented about prophecy and said that "if you hit once in 10 times, that is alright." [quoted by Abraham O. Smoot in 1868 at the Provo School of the Prophets]" ("Palerider," Hyrum Smith, New Order Mormon Forum, May 24, 2017; cf. the very next comment by "Mad Jax": "So prophecy = statistically likely outcome, is the position of Hyrum Smith on the subject...")
As I have done a lot of work on Joseph Smith's prophecies, I decided to actually check the minutes of the Provo School of the Prophets.
On
p. 122 of the Provo School of the Prophets (November 10, 1868), Abraham O. Smoot stressed the
importance of tithing. For e.g.:
. . . the 8th rule of the School [of
the Prophets] spoken of is in relation to tithing - Is a subject that we never
[ ] - you will all bear me witness
that tithing has been paid grudgingly - it is a matter of choice with us to pay
our tithing. . . . I have remarked that the cause of the earth not producing as
it once did was because we have failed to Tithe ourselves as we should - when
we first came here we was humble and prayful and the Lord was with us, we paid
our tithing the land was bless for our good [
now] we have trampelled the blessings of the Lord under our feet - the
Lord is gradually with drawing his blessings from us - let us wake up and see
our position - it is our duty to pay out tithing by this we will be blessed. .
. .
The
next time the Provo School of the Prophets would meet, Smoot again would stress
tithing, and make reference to a comment from "Hiram" (probably Hyrum
Smith):
Nov. 17. 1868
[opening Prayer etc., not indicated]
A. O. Smoot - the time is not far distant when we will be required to pay our
tithing - we have met together in order to qualify our-selves for the
requirements of the Lord, to form our judgments to quichen our understanding
and obtain the Spirit that inspired the Prophets of old - also our modern
prophets. Hiram used to say prophecy if you hit once in 10 times that is
alright - We want to become men of Sterling worth in the Kingdom of God - . . .
our heavenly Father will call us out one at a time and we will be chosen -
their will always be settlements of Saints in Utah where the Saints will be
schooled and be prepared to go back [ ]
[ ] he will not suffer the land to be polluted
when we go back we will want to know the Law of Tithing and every law required
by the Priesthood and tithing [not] paid will have to be paid - I have received
a note from Pres[iding]Bp. setting for that that not one tenth of the the
tithing is paid - this is not right - the lord is nor poor - yet it is a
privilege that is ranted to pay our tithing - he did not want subjects, when he
gave us the gospel and he said we must be baptized - he can save us without
[ ] being baptized but we [ ] do so we are all satisfied that he will
[ ] our tithing - this is a subject we
should all understand for our own interest - let us understand it is alike -
then let the influence go out from this school - see that we pay our tithing
and influence all others to do so - andy questions that you may chose to ask me
on this subject I will endeavor to answer - if I am [not] able I will tell you
so - before we adjourn I shall probably call some missionary to travel &
preach through this Co[unty] of Utah. May the Lord bless you Amen. (pp. 123,
124-25)
The
other speakers at this meeting would stress tithing, too. For e.g.:
Geo. Halladay - I believe that the law
of Tithing is con-hected with the first principles and for [ ] in faith - this covers tithing &
consecration and tithing is one of the Lords Laws to prove us as Saints
- if we cannot or do not pay our tithing we need not espect that we will ever
consecrate our property. I believe that Enoch & his city lived above this
law of tithing for I believe they gave their all and was thus prepared for a
higher sphere.
Chas. D. Miller - Spoke on the subject
of Tithing be-lieved and was satisfied it was correct spoke of the views of
some of the Elders - said he believed in paying a little more than less - (p.
125)
So,
what can we conclude from the above?
(1) The quote does not come from Hyrum
Smith; it is secondhand and from Abraham O. Smoot, 24 ½ years after Hyrum’s
death (assuming “Hiram” is “Hyrum Smith” [which I think is probable).
(2) Abraham O. Smoot, the source of
this late secondhand reminiscence, does not tell us when or where he heard
Hyrum teach this.
(3) There is nothing from Hyrum directly, or attributed to him from a scribe or other source, during his lifetime, that teaches this concept of the accuracy of prophecy.
(4) Contra Richard Packham, November 1, 1831 is never listed as the date when Hyrum Smith purportedly taught this. It first appears on November 17, 1868.
(5) The context of Abraham O. Smoot’s comments is not that of prophecy but instead tithing. It appears that he is making a point about the importance of 10% of one’s increase and making a parallel to prophecy.
(6) Contra Packham, Quinn, Abanes, et al., this is not evidence that Hyrum and other early Latter-day Saints had a low view of the necessity of fulfilled prophecy.
(7) Finally, as
I have documented, Joseph Smith made a number of accurate prophecies.
This
once again shows the importance of checking sources.
Further Reading:
Resources on Joseph Smith's Prophecies
